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Welcome to The Logoff. Today we’re focusing on the Trump administration’s new Ukraine policy, a shift with major implications for the war and for the world.
Meanwhile, new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was unrealistic for Ukraine to recover all of the land it has lost since Russia invaded in 2014. Hegseth also said the US would not commit its military to protect Ukraine after the war and that the US would not support Ukraine joining NATO.
How is that different from Biden-era Ukraine policies?
What’s the upside to the new policy? Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused mass casualties and human suffering. A peace deal would end that — if it holds.
What’s the downside? Ukrainians fear a peace deal will be a pause in hostilities, rather than an end to them. They fear that Putin will see that he can use force to gain territory, use the peace deal as a pause to rebuild his military, and then invade again — this time without as much US resistance. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO was also a key Russian priority, and consenting to that and other Putin demands in advance also forfeits US leverage in eventual talks.
And with that, it’s time to log off …
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