The US may or may not be marching toward war with Venezuela, but at the moment, there’s another Latin American country that seems to be occupying President Donald Trump’s attention.
Counting is currently underway in Honduras’s presidential election, which was held on Sunday, and the margins are razor thin, with Nasry “Tito” Asfura of the conservative National Party leading Salvador Nasralla of the centrist Liberal Party by just a few hundred votes.
Trump has been a surprisingly prominent factor in the closing days of the race. Last week, he took the unusual step of publicly endorsing Asfura, posting on Truth Social, “Tito and I can work together to fight Narcocommunists, and bring needed aid to the people of Honduras.” He described Nasralla as a “borderline communist.”
The US president then proceeded, on Friday, to give a full pardon to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted of drug trafficking in New York last year and was serving a 45-year sentence in the United States. Hernández, a member of Asfura’s party, was accused of taking bribes from Mexican drug cartels and running the country as a narcostate.
It might seem awkward, given that Trump is currently mulling military action against a Venezuelan president accused of drug trafficking, that he has pardoned another president convicted of the same thing. But since Trump took office, Hernández has been lobbying for his release, describing himself as a victim of political persecution — like Trump — and enlisting Trumpworld figures like the political operator Roger Stone to his cause. Trump has described Hernández as being “set up” by the Biden administration, though much of the case against him was built during Trump’s first term and the prosecutor on the case, Emil Bove, later served as Trump’s attorney and became a federal judge this year with the president’s endorsement.
Now, as the votes have been counted, and the lead has narrowed in Nasralla’s favor, Trump has intervened again, accusing Honduran electoral authorities of fraud, without citing evidence.
There’s a long history of US intervention in Honduran politics spanning from the “Banana Republic” era of the early 20th century through the Cold War and into the 21st century, but it’s rarely been quite so overt. To make sense of it, Vox spoke with Ricardo Zúñiga. Born in Honduras, Zúñiga served for 30 years in the US State Department including stints as deputy assistant secretary for the Western Hemisphere and special envoy to the Northern Triangle under the Biden administration. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Before Trump got involved, what were the main issues in the Honduran election?
The biggest issue was the perception that the current government, [led by President Xiomara Castro of the left-wing Libre Party] had failed to meet the commitments it made when it was elected. There were also a lot of questions about whether the Libre government would let the elections go forward without interruption. [Libre’s candidate is running a distant third in the current tally.]
How would you characterize Tito Asfura, the candidate Trump endorsed? Is he a right-wing populist like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador or Javier Milei in Argentina?
No, he is a very standard issue, center-right, business-friendly, former mayor; a longtime party politician at the municipal and national level. He’s been trying to distance himself from the shadow of Juan Orlando Hernández and present a different image as a can-do figure. The thing he’s known for is a construction boom during his time as mayor of Tegucigalpa. His motto has been “Papi a la orden,” which is like “Daddy at your service” — papi being a term of endearment.
What are the stakes of this election for the US and its policy in the region?
One is that Honduras is important for US cooperation related to migration and counternarcotics. Another is that during the current government, China has made real inroads in Honduras both economically and politically. [Honduras established diplomatic relations with China in 2023, breaking off decades of ties with Taiwan.] For this administration, there’s been a big push to roll back Chinese influence in Latin America, and Honduras is a central battleground for that.
As someone who follows and has helped shaped US policy toward Honduras in the past, what did you make of Trump’s pardon of Juan Orlando Hernández? What may have motivated that?
I don’t know that there was any particular strategy involved. This happened because a person close to the president, Roger Stone, had the ear of the president and was able to convince Trump pretty swiftly that Hernández had been the victim of political persecution, as the president had been. It’s evident from the speed with which the decision went through that there was no investigation into the claims and that they just were taken at face value. Emil Bove’s involvement [in Hernández’s original prosecution], I think, shows that this wasn’t really ideological.
What impact do you think Trump’s intervention — both the tweets and the pardon — has had on this election and on Honduran politics going forward?
The statements Trump made were probably more important than the pardon. The thing is, probably either of these candidates, if they win, is going to want to have good relations with the United States. It’s not as if Nasralla will want anything other than a close relationship. Nasralla is actually the one who models himself more like Bukele; he’s that kind of populist. [Nasralla had a long career as a TV presenter before going into politics.]
But through pretty effective lobbying, the National Party has managed to convince Trump that Nasralla is anti-American. Hondurans are very attuned to the positions of the United States. So I think the political class is concerned. Unfortunately, the Honduran election system is so shambolic that it makes it very easy to dispute results. It’s very hard to have sort of unimpeachable outcomes, so there’s plenty of room for pressure and manipulation.
It’s hard not to watch this situation without considering the context of the military build-up targeting Venezuela and another leader accused of drug trafficking. What do you think Trump’s interest in Honduras tells us about the administration’s priorities in Latin America?
I don’t think it says much about their regional approach. This was a case of actors in Honduras finding the right channels to reach President Trump. The lesson here for other political actors in Latin America is to ignore the old US institutions like the Department of State or the local embassy, and find somebody who can reach President Trump personally.