The odds have been in favor of Democrats winning the House for nearly a year. Midterm elections usually aren’t kind to presidents, and Trump’s approval rating began to crash three weeks into his second administration. The slide continued all through his first year.
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The president’s tariffs and lack of concern about costs and inflation have enraged voters and turned many of them against his administration.
While ICE rightly gets a lot of the headlines, the issue that continues to propel the midterm election toward Democrats is the economy.
Senate incumbents usually have a reelection rate of around 80 percent or more. It is rare in a non-presidential election year to have a wave of Senate incumbents lose.
In 2022, 100% of Senate incumbents running for reelection won. The low. The lowest reelection rate for incumbent senators over the last twenty years came in 2006, when it was 78.3%.
It looks like there is a wave building against Trump and the Republican Party in 2026, and that wave is starting to worry Republicans even in deep red states like Texas, where if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn loses the GOP primary, Democrats are viewed as having a chance to pick up a Senate seat in a state that they haven’t won statewide in decades.
Republicans have more than a Texas Senate problem. The issue is growing into a national Senate problem, and Trump is to blame.
