In Illinois, Republicans may be about to get their preferred Senate candidates in the Democratic Party primary for Senate, where the early influx of big money has defined the race.
In April 2025, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and is now the second-highest-ranking Democrat, announced his retirement after the 2026 election, setting off a race to fill the seat, the winner of which stands a good chance at serving just as long as Durbin.
In May, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., entered the race and quickly established himself as the dominant fundraiser, with more than $21 million in his war chest by July. This cash, most of which came from his House campaign fund, fueled an early wave of TV ads that helped establish name recognition in the state and an early lead in the polls.
Sam Weinberg, an Illinois Democratic strategist who most recently worked on Kat Abughazaleh’s House campaign in the state, told Salon that this early fundraising dominance came to define the race.
“There’s been a political pragmatism that’s informed this race since before it even started, mainly because people knew that Krishnamoorthi was just stockpiling money and had a huge war chest,” Weinberg said. “So anyone who had a chance to beat him would have had to just have incredible fundraising.”
The money came in from a constellation of corporate PACs, interest groups, executives and unions; however, a few donations, totaling about $90,000, came from prominent allies of President Donald Trump, drawing particular scrutiny.
First reported by the Chicago Sun-Times, these donors included Marc Andreesen, a Trump adviser and investor, Shyam Sankar, a significant GOP donor and Palantir chief technology officer, and Michael Pillsbury, a contributor to the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which helped lay the groundwork for Trump’s second administration agenda.
While Krishnamoorthi’s campaign said that it donated the money it received from Trump allies to immigrant rights groups in late 2025, the contours of the race remained the same, at least until relatively recently.
While most polling in the race has shown Krishnamoorthi as the frontrunner, recent polls have suggested that Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has at least closed the gap, and perhaps taken the lead, in the final days of the campaign.
A recent FM3 Research poll, sponsored by the American Future Fund, conducted between March 10 and 12, found that Stratton led Krishanmoorthi 38% to 33%. American Future is a DraftKings-bankrolled PAC. Similarly, a Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association-sponsored survey, conducted from March 9 to 10 by Public Policy Polling, found a 2-point Stratton lead.
“Part of it will depend just upon what the turnout looks like between the city and the collar counties.”
Stratton, like Krishnamoorthi, announced her campaign shortly after Durbin announced his retirement, but unlike Krishnamoorthi, she didn’t have $19 million in campaign funds to draw on. What she did have, however, is the backing of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who endorsed her in April and later donated $5 million to the Illinois Future PAC, which has been supporting Stratton. Jennifer Pritzker, JB’s cousin, has also donated $1 million to the PAC, which has spent a total of $14 million on the race.
The situation is further complicated by the candidacy of Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., who has consistently polled well ahead of every other candidate besides Krishnamoorthi and Stratton, but well behind the two front-runners in the final stretch of the campaign. In the latest FM3 Research survey, for example, Kelly received 18% support, 15 points behind Krishnamoorthi’s 33%. While still significant, Kelly hasn’t had the same financial support as the other candidates. So far, the campaign has raised $3.3 million, and outside spending on her behalf has totalled less than a million dollars.
Endorsements of prominent progressives have also been divided in the race. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D- Mass., for example, endorsed Stratton, while Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., endorsed Kelly.
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John March Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, told Salon in an interview that he expects either Krishnamoorthi or Stratton to win, and that it will likely come down to Democratic turnout, with voters in Chicago likely favoring Stratton while voters in the suburbs leaning for Krishnamoorthi.
“He represents more suburban and even exurban constituencies than the others. The collar counties, the suburban counties, used to be pretty Republican, and they’re still more Republican than the city. But these days they’re leaning pretty significantly Democratic. Part of it will depend just upon what the turnout looks like between the city and the collar counties,” Hansen said.
Hansen added that he expects whoever wins the primary to have fairly safe reelection campaigns in future races as well.
“It’s hard for me to imagine a situation, even in Illinois, where someone could be primaried from the left and be successful at the statewide level,” Hansen said.
Krishnamoorthi’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
