Florida has gone from the “hanging chad” swing state that made George W. Bush president in the 2000 election to a reliably red state that is only second to Texas in necessity and value to Republicans.
Democrats went through a period during the Obama years when they thought they could swing Florida back into their column, but for a variety of reasons, not limited to voter suppression and gerrymandering, Republicans have consolidated their hold on power in the Sunshine State.
The big driver of the Florida Democratic wins was not increasing Democratic turnout among the base. Republicans have a 1.5 million voter registration advantage in the state and are more well-funded.
Democrats have been winning in Florida special elections since Trump returned to office because Hispanic voters, especially Puerto Rican voters, have swung back to Democrats after shifting to Trump in 2024.
The biggest factor is Independents. In Florida, the Democratic overperformance in the special elections was powered by Independents.
Trump and his party have seen their support among Independents collapse, and those Independents are showing their displeasure with the country’s trajectory by voting for Democratic candidates.
All of this means that Democrats have an opening to target several vulnerable House Republicans in Florida, and it looks like they are not going to let it get past them.
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