Republicans are hanging on to their majority in the House by a thread. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s abrupt resignation means that a reliable red House seat will remain unfilled for months.
However, it is what is happening in a special House election in Tennessee that should be terrifying Republicans. Tennessee’s Seventh US House district is not a race that, in a normal year, anyone would consider to be ripe for flipping.
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Republicans have heavily gerrymandered the district. Trump carried it in 2024 by 22 points.
Hakeem Jeffries and House Democrats have been consistently widening their map of potential 2026 pickups. The Democrats have been telling anyone who would listen for months that districts Republicans carried by 20 points or more are in play for 2026.
Experts and Republicans scoffed because if seats that Republicans carried by more than twenty points were in play, it could result in a historic midterm election win for Democrats.
What is happening in the Tennessee special election is making it look like Democrats are right.
The special election is on Tuesday, and what happens in Tennessee could be a strong indicator of where the 2026 midterm election is heading.
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