Trump’s “white working class” base may finally have had enough

Donald Trump threw himself a great big birthday party over the weekend, targeted to appeal to the famous white working-class voters who have formed the core of his base since the moment he came down that golden escalator. He transformed the White House lawn into a makeshift Colosseum and held a modern-day gladiatorial spectacle, officially called UFC Freedom 250. One participant vomited on himself and later made offensive comments about Michelle Obama, to the great amusement of the assembled crowd. But there are signs that this sort of cultural signifier may not be enough to keep the MAGA faithful on board anymore.

It’s always been a bit strange that this spoiled, Richie Rich-style heir to a real estate fortune could possibly become an avatar of the working class. He’s never known a moment of physical labor in his life and has nothing but contempt for any of the hard-fought regulations and rights that protect workers from the predations of the moneyed elite and give them a chance at the American dream. One might have thought that all his ostentatious displays of wealth, compared to the squeeze working people have faced for at least the last generation, would at least make them skeptical. But as we’ve all discussed ad nauseam over the last couple of decades, tribal grievance tends to trump material self-interest among a large faction of the American electorate.

But a big part of Trump’s appeal, and perhaps what binds him so closely to this group, is not so much that he has his finger on the pulse of blue-collar workers’ cultural gripes but that he also personally shares them. His wealth represents a sort of aspirational model for many people of that class, even though he inherited his wealth, mostly thank to the reality show that portrayed him as a hugely successful self-made businessman. If that guy can become a billionaire, the thinking went, so can I!

Everything about that was fake, of course. But cults are generally led by charlatans, so that’s not surprising. When people want to believe in something badly enough, they disconnect their bullshit detectors to block out the dissonance. MAGA has been that kind of cult from the beginning, providing adherents with the genuine warmth of connectedness, acceptance and downright fun. But despite Trump’s big fight-night birthday party and his upcoming Fourth of July celebration on the nation’s 250th anniversary, it seems possible that MAGA followers are waking up to the reality that their Dear Leader isn’t all that.

Trump’s big problem is that his lies about the economy are catching up to him. It was one thing when the detested Joe Biden oversaw a brief period of high inflation during the post-pandemic recovery. They knew who to blame. After all, Trump told them Biden had stolen the election and was too old and sleepy to do the job. But after a year and a half of the second Trump presidency, even they can’t lie to themselves anymore. He promised to banish inflation and it’s only gotten worse.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump’s approval rating among his base rural voters is now at 50%, down from 60% in February, with a disapproval rating of 48%, up from 34%. That voting bloc that went for Trump by 40 points in the 2024 election, but are now feeling the pinch of tariffs, high gas prices and the soaring cost of living in general. They’re not too happy about the Iran war either, whether there’s a “deal” or not.

A new Fox News poll has similar findings. Trump’s approval rating among his white rural base is now all the way down to 44%, a startling 33 points lower than at the beginning of his term. Only 16% of respondents said their financial situation had improved in the last two years, while 49% said they are worse off. Almost two-thirds of those polled, or 64%, said the cost of living is the most important economic problem they face, and fewer than one-third (30%) said they thought Trump was handling the issue. And there wasn’t much faith that he’s likely to make things better: While 49% said Trump’s policies will hurt the country in the long run, only 39% said they were more likely to help. Maybe these folks should have paid more attention when he fatuously declared that he could solve all problems with tariffs and we’d see “growth” on the first day.

This discontent isn’t found solely among rural voters. Trump is in trouble with blue-collar workers across the board. A New York Times analysis by Shane Goldmacher showed “an extraordinary swing … among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.” Back then, “working-class white voters approved of his management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 to more than 30 points.” He cites Trump’s downward-trending approval ratings among that demographic across a range of media polls, including Fox News (33% approval), CBS News (39%), NPR/PBS/Marist (40%), CNN (43%) and The New York Times/Siena College (47%).

According to Goldmacher, Republicans are responding to this problem by touting their tax cuts, and that’s not likely to get them anywhere. Everyone knows the bulk of those cuts went to the rich, and they certainly haven’t offset inflation. But what else do they have?

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Trump obviously feels that he can snow his followers into believing him instead of the evidence of their eyes and their wallets. That doesn’t seem to be working quite as well anymore. He said he “loves the inflation” because it will feel so good when it comes back down. But if that happens, it’s won’t be rapid or immediate, and there’s no guarantee inflation will come down at all, even if his supposed deal with Iran holds up. There isn’t a lot of positive news except for the soaring stock market, and that’s not much of a winning argument with blue-collar workers. Those who run focus groups report that working-class voters are well aware of Trump’s obsession with the White House ballroom and all the monuments to himself, and it’s not going down well. If he thinks the Marie Antoinette strategy is a big winner, he’s wrong.

This past weekend’s birthday festivities at the White House seem to have been a hit with mixed martial arts fans, a group that definitely overlaps with Trump’s voter base. It made sense for him to make that connection, and he genuinely seems to enjoy the sport. But the non-college-educated voters who have traditionally been his bedrock supporters are facing so much financial strain these days that his cultural affinities, even when they’re somewhat authentic, just don’t cut it. As the Emperor Nero could have told Trump, bread and circuses are a great combination, but they don’t work without the bread.