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The next Strait of Hormuz

July 15, 2026
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The next Strait of Hormuz
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This story appeared in Today, Explained, a daily newsletter that helps you understand the most compelling news and stories of the day. Subscribe here.

If I had a nickel for every time President Donald Trump backtracked or changed course on Iran, I’d have…well, at least enough money for a gallon of $3.89 gas.

Trump has threatened attacks and postponed them. He’s praised Iran’s leaders in one breath and panned them as “scum” in the next. The latest about-face played out Tuesday morning, when Trump canceled a controversial, short-lived plan to charge fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway at the heart of this whole mess.

It’s incredibly easy to get lost in all the back-and-forth. (Even as I write this, the United States is still sanctioning Iranian oil sales, preventing ships from docking at Iranian ports, and bombarding the country with missile strikes.) But if you zoom out far enough, a clear narrative does emerge: Whatever the war might’ve been about in the beginning, it’s now very clearly a strait-up tug-of-war for control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is the world’s most important energy chokepoint: A fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through it. And now that Iran has shown it can shut down that traffic, whoever controls the strait will gain both a major potential revenue source and a powerful economic weapon.

These waterways run the world

The Strait of Hormuz is what’s known as a maritime chokepoint: a narrow waterway that handles an outsized share of global trade. Your daily life is almost definitely filled with and fueled by goods that pass through these channels. But you may never have occasion to consciously think about them until something — like a war or a stuck container ship — gets in the way. Here are a few of the other heavyweights (click to see a larger version here):

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